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Africa: Davos Report Card
AfricaFocus Bulletin
Jan 22, 2004 (040122)
(Reposted from sources cited below)
Editor's Note
In his New Year's message for 2004, United Nations Secretary
General Kofi Annan, referring to HIV/AIDS, poverty, and other
global issues, concluded: "We don't need any more promises. We need
to start keeping the promises we already made." A report card
prepared for the World Economic Forum now meeting in Davos,
Switzerland has concluded that the international community is
putting in barely one-third of the effort needed to achieve
internationally agreed goals.
In this evaluation by the World Economic Forum's Global Governance
Initiative, experts rated the cumulative efforts of governments,
civil society, and the private sector. They focused not on what
humanity should be trying to do, but on "whether it is in fact
making a sufficient effort to do what it claims it wants to
achieve." The report's conclusions, presented to the gathering of
more than 2,000 influential world leaders, were devastating. The
analysis fell short of the sharper critiques voiced by the 100,000
who met this month at the World Social Forum in Mumbai. But its
sober concern stood in marked contrast to the indifference of
President George Bush, whose State of the Union message on Tuesday
failed to mention any of these issues at all.
This issue of AfricaFocus Bulletin contains a short factsheet
summarizing the Global Governnance Initiative conclusions. A longer
executive summary and the full report are available at:
http://www.weforum.org/globalgovernance
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World Economic Forum Global Governance Initiative Fact Sheet
The World Economic Forum's Global Governance Initiative (GGI) has
released the executive summary of its first annual report, which
concludes that in 2003 the world engaged in barely one-third of the
effort and cooperation necessary to achieve the goals it has set
for itself through the United Nations Millennium Declaration. The
report represents a year-long independent analysis by seven groups
of some of the world's leading experts in the areas of peace and
security, poverty, hunger, education, health, environment and human
rights. The independent watchdog effort involves 50 experts from
around the world overseen by a distinguished Steering Committee of
eminent persons.
The report points to the need for greater effort by and cooperation
among governments, international organizations, the private sector
and civil society in order to reach the goals endorsed in 2000 by
189 countries.
It also highlights the positive results of numerous innovative
programmes from all sectors that provide reason to be cautiously
optimistic about our ability to overcome these problems.
The Goals:
The starting point for this assessment is the Millennium
Declaration, endorsed by the leaders of 189 nations at the United
Nations Millennium Summit in September 2000. The Millennium
Declaration represents a broad consensus on a global agenda,
bringing together the whole range of issues the world confronts,
from poverty to environmental degradation to the scourge of war. In
several cases, however, the international community has since made
significant progress in refining pieces of that global agenda
through such fora as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the
Monterrey meeting and the Johannesburg conference. Where
appropriate, the project has used the goals espoused in later
documents as the benchmark against which to evaluate global
efforts. But in all cases, the goals we are examining are those set
by humanity's official representatives in the form of national
governments, which have almost universally adopted the goals.
This project assesses not what humanity should be trying to do, but
whether it is in fact making a sufficient effort to do what it
claims it wants to achieve. The specific goals against which effort
and cooperation were measured are:
- Education: ensure universal primary education and gender parity
in primary and secondary schooling by 2015
- Environment: stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system, implement conventions related
to the conservation of biodiversity and halve the proportions of
people without access to water and sanitation by 2015
- Health: stop and begin to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS and
malaria, and reduce by two-thirds the under- five mortality rate
and by three-quarters the maternal mortality ratio by 2015
- Human Rights: uphold international human rights standards, with
particular attention to the prevention of torture and
ill-treatment, protection of the rights of migrants, employment and
labour rights, and the rule of law and access to information
- Hunger: halve the number of people suffering from hunger by 2015
- Peace and Security: free all peoples from the scourge of war,
both within and between states, seek to eliminate the dangers posed
by weapons of mass destruction, take concerted action against
international terrorism and end illicit traffic in small arms
- Poverty: halve the proportion of people living in poverty by 2015
Methodology: To carry out this project, over the past year seven
groups of some of the world's leading experts gathered to assess
how hard the world is trying. They evaluated how much progress the
international community has been making towards some of the key
goals it has assumed and whether the individual and cooperative
efforts being expended by the key actors (governments,
international organizations, business and civil society) are
commensurate with what is needed to achieve these goals. In most
cases, they consulted with a wide range of experts from around the
world to gather a broad set of perspectives on the events of 2003.
Their assessment has been reviewed by an international Steering
Committee, in whose name this Global Governance Report is released.
World Economic Forum Global Governance Initiative
From Aspiration to Action
The assessment takes the form of a numerical grade on a zero to ten
scale, backed up by an explanatory narrative that describes key
trends and initiatives and spotlights dramatic successes and
failures. Zero represents retrogression: the activities of the
international community during the calendar year actually made the
problem worse. One represents little or no meaningful effort, five
indicates that the world is doing roughly half of what it should
have done in 2003 if it were serious about achieving the goal, and
10 indicates that the world did essentially everything it needed to
do to be on track to reach the goal.
Expanding Our Concept of Global Governance: The Global Governance
Initiative is unique in evaluating the contributions of the private
sector and civil society as well as those of governmental actors
towards achieving the goals. Most such efforts involving civil
society groups and especially corporations are so recent that it is
not yet possible to judge their long-term effectiveness. It is not
clear whether they represent a permanent shift in how humanity will
try to solve its problems, or whether they are merely a set of
stopgap measures undertaken in desperation in the face of
inadequate governmental action. Whatever the future holds in this
respect, it is clear that the promise of broader multistakeholder
cooperation is stretching our traditional understanding of global
governance as the product of official, intergovernmental
arrangements, adding a hopeful new dimension to the concept and
conduct of multilateralism.
Breakdown of Findings: For 2003, the Global Governance Initiative
found that in no single area did the international community
warrant more than a score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 10:
- Peace and Security 3
- Poverty 4
- Hunger 3
- Education 3
- Health 4
- Environment 3
- Human Rights 3
Below is a summary of the principal analysis of the Initiative's
seven expert groups, and the score given to the international
community (on a scale of 0-10) for 2003.
Peace and Security Score: 3
Contrary to popular perception, there was positive news in 2003: no
new civil wars broke out and conflicts in the Democratic Republic
of Congo, Liberia and Sudan seemed on their way to resolution. The
conflict prevention capabilities of governments and international
organizations, as well as civil society and the private sector,
have clearly been strengthened. However, the international
community failed to prevent or sanction war in Iraq, hostilities
continue in Afghanistan, relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea and
between India and Pakistan remain fragile, and the Israel-Palestine
conflict remains dangerously unresolved. Thus, far more needs to be
done to consolidate the trend towards declining inter-state war.
Additionally, great security threats persist such as the growth of
international terrorist networks as well as the existence of many
fragile and collapsed states. Only very modest gains have been made
in reducing the availability of small arms and light weapons, and
stockpiles of landmines remain enormous as China, Russia and the
United States have refused to sign the Land Mines Treaty. Though
the year ended on a positive note with Libya freezing its nuclear
programme, the revelations concerning Iran and North Korea's
nuclear weapons programmes pose a serious challenge to
non-proliferation.
Poverty Score: 4
Whereas global efforts on poverty reduction stalled in 2003, strong
domestic policy and local, private initiatives proved increasingly
successful in improving the lives of millions of the world's poor.
The failure of the World Trade Organization's Cancun negotiations
to open rich country markets to agricultural products from the
developing world, and the continuation of large subsidies to rich
country farmers, left the world's poorest unable to compete
internationally. And despite pledges by OECD countries to
significantly increase foreign aid, US commitments at the Monterrey
conference and through its Millennium Challenge Account and AIDS
initiative have not been fully matched with resources. The World
Bank International Monetary Fund Poverty Reduction Strategy Process
for least-developed countries helped increase government spending
on poverty reduction in very poor countries, but too few of those
strategies achieve the stated aim of involving governments and
citizens in a far-reaching consensus on how to tackle poverty
effectively. Trade liberalization through the US Africa Growth and
Opportunity Act and the self-assessment mechanism of the New
Partnership for Africa's Development are both positive steps
towards focusing African countries on poverty reduction. The
Chinese government has significantly reduced poverty ratios by
leveraging fast economic growth to increase fiscal spending for
poverty reduction, upgrading infrastructure and sponsoring loan,
grant and food-for-work programmes. Though social spending has
increased in Latin America, continued financial crises have left
extreme poverty numbers unchanged since 1997. In South Asia,
innovative civil society efforts such as self-help foundations have
trained micro-credit aid recipients and provided banking,
insurance, healthcare, legal aid and other services to the poor,
particularly women.
Hunger Score: 3
Evidence from 2003 suggests that although several major regions are
making progress, vast swaths of humanity will face increasing
hunger unless international trade policies are changed, national
policies focus on hunger and successful local efforts are
multiplied. Of 34 countries which represent more than 90% of the
world's undernourished people, China has already cut the proportion
of hungry people in half from 1990 levels, and East Asia as a whole
and Latin America are likely to reach the goal of halving hunger by
2015. However, in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa and South
Asia, the proportion of hungry people is likely to increase. The
failure to liberalize trade in agricultural commodities at Cancun
continued the discrimination against poor farmers' market access
and kept investment in boosting developing country agricultural
productivity low. Chinese policies related to land reform,
irrigation, agricultural research, disaster relief and
transportation infrastructure have been significant. Brazil has
launched a promising Zero Hunger programme targeting 11 million
poor families for cash payments, school programmes, vaccinations
and job training. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's
Anti-Hunger Programme is making steps to balance increased
agricultural productivity with resource conservation. The civil
society-led Harvest Plus programme is researching how to increase
the content of iron, vitamin A and zinc in staple foods consumed by
low-income people, which could have a major impact.
Education Score: 3
Though overall progress in recent years towards universal primary
education and gender parity has been impressive, at least 96
countries have not reached the target of universal primary
education, and 104 million school aged children are not enrolled in
primary school. Prioritizing education, particularly for girls, has
proven instrumental for economic growth, but investment still lags
far behind needs. South and West Asia, the Arab States and North
Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean have witnessed rapid
growth in primary enrolments, but educational quality, particularly
in Latin America, is so low that fundamental changes are still
needed for the majority of children to have access to meaningful
education. Whereas most countries have achieved gender parity in
primary education, China and India are not on track to meet the
goal. Kenya and India have, however, joined many other countries in
eliminating school fees, making education affordable particularly
for girls and making education mandatory. In parts of Africa, AIDS
is killing teachers faster than they can be replaced. An additional
US$ 5.6 billion (from the current US$ 1.5 billion) in development
assistance is needed annually to support education for girls and in
war-torn countries. The World Bank-designed Fast Track Initiative
has promised to reward countries who prioritize education with
substantial financial and technical assistance, but financial
donors have fallen short in providing the US$ 300 million necessary
to sustain its commitments to only 18 countries. The civil
society-led Global Campaign for Education is placing education high
on electoral agendas, but private sector initiatives remain
confined to philanthropy and one-off projects.
Health Score: 4
Many new and promising initiatives were launched in 2003 with
respect to AIDS and other health challenges. If promises are
fulfilled, with a bit more effort it may be possible to get the
world on track towards reversing the spread of AIDS and malaria and
drastically reducing infant and maternal mortality. At the present
trajectory, there may be as many as 45 million new HIV/AIDS
infections worldwide by 2010, up from the current estimated 40
million. Treatment initiatives and education campaigns in South
Africa and China could lead to significant breakthroughs in curbing
the spread of AIDS. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and
Malaria, created in 2002, brings together national governments,
non-governmental organizations, communities, corporations,
foundations and international organizations in a partnership, and
has awarded over US$ 2 billion in over 100 countries. The Roll Back
Malaria campaign has helped to more than triple international
spending on malaria control to US$ 200 million. Dramatic
improvements in health are readily achievable by more extensive use
of proven, cost-effective technologies and greater investment in
deploying the basic health infrastructure for their delivery.
Personnel training, evaluation systems and service delivery remain
large gaps around the world, however. Furthermore, the
prioritization of AIDS cannot come at the expense of child
immunizations, as has been the case in Brazil. Government
investment has lagged, allowing immunization to drop below rates
from the 1980s. Consequently, child and maternal mortality rates
also remain high in Africa and South-East Asia.
Environment Score: 3
The environmental picture is largely bleak. There was little
evidence in 2003 that the international community is even thinking
seriously enough about how to get the world on track to stabilize
greenhouse gas emissions, conserve biodiversity and improve access
to safe drinking water and sanitation. The longer-term consequences
of unabated greenhouse gas emissions are likely to include
detrimental effects on agricultural production, water supply,
forests, vector-borne diseases and overall human development. From
the Framework Convention on Climate Change to the Kyoto Protocol,
international efforts have largely failed to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. But there are glimmers of hope. The European Union has
stabilized absolute emissions to 1990 levels, and is developing
emissions trading schemes and energy taxation policies to encourage
conservation. Also, corporations such as BP, Shell and DuPont have
reduced their emissions. The Convention on Biological Diversity has
had little effect since 1993, with species loss occurring at
perhaps 1,000 times the rate of any previous era. Forest
certification schemes cover at most 1% of the global forest, and
less than 1% of the marine environment is protected. Most spending
on protected areas occurs in North America, yet amounts to only
one-fourth of the US$ 30 billion required annually. One and a half
billion people still lack access to safe drinking water or basic
sanitation. Teaching of sanitary practices such as hand-washing has
increased, and in India private companies have provided water taps
to the public to reduce the waiting time in water lines.
Human Rights Score: 3
2003 was very mixed for human rights. Though almost all states have
ratified some or all of the existing international human rights
conventions and treaties, the international prohibition against
torture has been perceived to soften since the terrorist attacks of
11 September 2001, with numerous countries undermining civil
liberties in the name of national security. A new Protocol to the
Torture Convention will create a panel of independent inspectors
with authority to visit places of detention and strengthen the
protection of detainees. Rwanda, Serbia and Sierra Leone have
brought to trial or made accountable military and civilian
officials who have been responsible for torture and murder.
Increasing migration in all its forms has raised major labour
related rights issues where they are being woefully neglected. The
legal status of the increasing number of migrants and trafficked or
smuggled persons remains unclear, yet these people are often
exploited and deprived of legal rights. The European Union has
criminalized such migration without controlling it through the
Palermo Protocols. Not a single industrialized country has ratified
the International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All
Migrant Workers and Members of their Families, which finally
entered into force on 1 July 2003. Through the new Extractive
Industries' Transparency Initiative and other codes, some companies
have acknowledged their operational human rights responsibilities,
but the vast majority have not. The rights of workers in the
world's vast informal economies are hardly considered by global
discussion. Building on the efforts of Transparency International,
the World Bank and UNDP have increased assistance towards capacity
building and anti-corruption activities, while enhancing
non-governmental participation in government reform, but progress
has been minimal to date.
Complementary Initiatives:
The Global Governance Initiative is
intended to complement efforts under way elsewhere to promote
progress toward global goals. For the most part, these other
efforts focus on the Millennium Development Goals, which are a
subset of the Millennium Declaration's broad agenda addressing
poverty, health, hunger and education. The United Nations has
launched several initiatives related to the MDGs. The Millennium
Project, under the direction of UN Special Adviser and Columbia
University Professor Jeffrey Sachs, is convening ten task forces
over the course of three years to recommend strategies for
achieving the goals. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has appointed
former Netherlands Development Minister Eveline Herfkens as
Executive Coordinator of a Millennium Campaign to mobilize
political support for the MDGs. The UN Development Programme is
monitoring country-level progress towards achievement of the MDGs.
All are laudable undertakings, and the Global Governance Initiative
has benefited from consultations with them. The Global Governance
Initiative benefits from the partnership support of the Swiss
Agency for Development and Cooperation and the Center for
International Governance Innovation.
The full Executive Summary will be released in London on 15 January
and at the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos
which takes place from 21 to 25 January. The text can be downloaded
at http://www.weforum.org/globalgovernance
For additional information, please contact Richard Samans, Managing
Director, World Economic Forum, at [email protected], or
Project Director Ann Florini, Senior Fellow at the Brookings
Institution, at [email protected]
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