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Africa: Internet Growth Accelerating
AfricaFocus Bulletin
Feb 4, 2009 (090204)
(Reposted from sources cited below)
Editor's Note
"Until recently, the experience of the internet in Africa has been
like having to eat a three-course meal by sucking it through a
straw: time-consuming, unreliable and expensive. .. [but prices are
dropping] and cheap international bandwidth is an essential
component for any developing country to remain competitive in a
changing world." - Russell Southwood, in Global Information Society
Watch 2008
Southwood goes on to note that new undersea cables, two of them due
to be completed this year, are predicted to cut international
bandwidth prices for some African countries by as much as 90%, and
that there will be strong pressure for reducing costs inside
countries as well, as well as for finding new ways to bring cheaper
connections to neglected rural areas.
Although Africa still remains last among world regions in estimated
internet penetration (5.4% of the population as compared to the
world average of 23.4%, according to end-2008 figures from Internet
World Stats - see article below), it also features a growth rate of
over 1,000% between 2000 and mid-2008, with an estimated 19.8%
growth rate between end 2007 and end 2008. Internet World Stats now
estimates more than 51 million internet users in Africa, while
leading expert Southwood estimates an even higher user/population
rate, if usage at internet cafes is fully taken into account.
This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains excerpts from two recent
articles on global internet usage, the first from the commercial
firm ComScore (http://www.comscore.com) and the second from the web
site Internet World States (http://www.internetworldstats.com),
which also provides more detailed estimates by country. The
Bulletin also contains excerpts from Russell Southwood's article on
Trends in Technology, from the Global Information Society Watch
2008 report, released in December. Additional articles from GISW
2008 are available for download at http://giswatch.org, and a press
release on the report is at http://www.apc.org/en/node/7558
Of particular interest among the other GISW reports is that on
Africa, by Abiodun Jagun at
http://www.giswatch.org/gisw2008/regional/Africa.html
Internet statistics for individual African countries, as of mid-
2008, are given at http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats1.htm
For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on internet and related issues,
as well as a custom search of recommended sites on Africa & ICT,
visit http://www.africafocus.org/ictexp.php
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Announcement: MysteryPlaces.Net
For that fraction of AfricaFocus readers who also happen to be
readers of mystery novels (a significant number based on my
unscientific sample of AfricaFocus readers I know), I am pleased to
announce a new website that I am also running:
http://www.mysteryplaces.net
The site focuses on mystery novels with a sense of place, and is
organized by country, state (in the United States), and author.
There are not too many from Africa, to start with, but hopefully that will grow;
among African authors that may be less familiar, who have written
in the genre, are Moussa Konat� (http://www.mysteryplaces.net/countries/mali.php), Yasmina Khadra
(http://www.mysteryplaces.net/countries/algeria.php), and Michael
Stanley, who joins the better-known Alexander McCall Smith with
another series set in Botswana (http://www.mysteryplaces.net/countries/botswana.php). And of
course there are a few from South Africa (
http://www.mysteryplaces.net/countries/south_africa.php - a
couple are old enough not to have covers in Amazon, so you need to
use the links at the bottom of the page.)
I've put in links for the authors to Amazon (using book covers,
similar to those on http://www.africafocus.org/books/afbooks.php,
and also added links to background on the authors and to the
international book exchange site BookMooch (http://www.bookmooch.com). On Bookmooch you can give away books,
gaining points, and receive books, spending points - unlike some
other such sites, it operates internationally as well as in the
United States. And if you have a points surplus, you can offer it
to be used by charities, such as libraries in Madagascar and the
Philippines.
I'm doing the site partly for fun, and because it was easy to
set it up and maintain it with minimal time input, using the same
programming tools used for AfricaFocus Bookshop
(http://www.africafocus.org/books/afbooks.php). In addition, any
small proceeds coming from Amazon commissions help to support the
work of AfricaFocus. So, if you like to read such books, I hope
you'll visit often. If not, I'm sure you have friends who do; I
would appreciate it if you pass this link on to them:
http://www.mysteryplaces.net
++++++++++++++++++++++end editor's note+++++++++++++++++++++++
Global Internet Audience Surpasses 1 billion Visitors, According to
comScore
Asia-Pacific Region Accounts for 41 Percent of Internet Users
China Ranks as Largest Internet Population in the World
http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=2698
LONDON, U.K., January 23, 2009 - comScore, Inc., a leader in
measuring the digital world, today reported that total global
Internet audience (age 15 and older from home and work computers)
has surpassed 1 billion visitors in December 2008, based on data
from the comScore World Metrix audience measurement service.
The Asia-Pacific region accounted for the highest share of global
Internet users at 41 percent, followed by Europe (28 percent
share), North America (18 percent share), Latin-America (7 percent
share), and the Middle East & Africa (5 percent share).
[for table see web link above - note that Comscore estimates do not
include traffic from public computers such as internet cafes, or users
under 15 years old]
Chinese Internet Audience Outranks U.S.
China represented the largest online audience in the world in
December 2008 with 180 million Internet users, representing nearly
18 percent of the total worldwide Internet audience, followed by
the U.S. (16.2 percent share), Japan (6.0 percent share), Germany
(3.7 percent share) and the U.K. (3.6 percent share).
[Others in the top 15 countries included France and India, each
with over 3% of the world audience; Russia, Brazil, South Korea,
Canada, and Italy, each with over 2% of the world audience; and
Mexico and the Netherlands, each with 1.2% of the world audience.]
[Internet World Stats says internet users number over 1.5 billion]
Internet World Stats News
January 25, 2009
Note that these are early figures, and that breakdowns by country
are not yet available in this database for end-2008. More complete
data is available for mid-2008 at
http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm]
Internet users in the world already hit one and a half billion
persons approximately in July of 2008. The current estimates of
Internet users for 2008 year-end (2008Q4) according to our
database, which includes ALL the Internet users universe, comprises
over 1,573,269,743 persons worldwide. The Internet Penetration Rate
is 23.4%, considering a global population of 6,708,755,756 persons
according to the U.S. Census Bureau data.
2008Q4 World Internet Stats
The following table, displayed for the first time, gives the yearly
growth rate (2007 vs. 2008) for each region of the world, based on
the Internet World Stats database figures, the estimated number of
users and the penetration rates.
Internet World Users Report
Year-end 2008 by World Regions
Region 2008 2007 Growth P.R.
Africa 53,136,930 44,361,940 19.8% 5.4%
America,
Caribbean 7,994,300 5,985,209 33.6% 19.8%
America,
Central 28,814,000 25,997,600 10.8% 19.0%
America,
North 246,328,977 238,015,529 3.5% 73.0%
America,
South 127,296,284 77,978,800 63.2% 32.7%
Asia 647,168,227 510,478,743 26.8% 17.1%
Europe 396,834,928 348,125,847 14.0% 49.4%
Middle
East 45,101,346 33,510,500 34.6% 22.9%
Oceania,
Australia 20,594,751 19,175,836 7.4% 59.9%
Total
World 1,573,269,743 1,319,872,109 19.2% 23.4%
Source: Internet World Stats Database, accessed on December 31,
2008. Comparison figures are 2007 and 2008 year-end data. Please
Note: Mexico is included in Central America, and Turkey is included
in Europe. P.R. is the Penetration Rate. Copyright 2009,
Miniwatts Marketing Group.
[Criteria used for deriving these estimates are given at
http://www.internetworldstats.com/surfing.htm]
Bandwidth, the petrol of the new global economy
by Russell Southwood
Editor, Balancing Act
http://www.balancingact-africa.com
[Excerpts: for full text with more technical detail, references,
and links to other articles from Global Information Society Watch
2008 see http://www.giswatch.org/gisw2008/thematic/TrendsInTechnology.html]
Put simply, bandwidth is what carries voice and data from one place
to another. Bandwidth is the petrol of the new global economy; and
cheap international bandwidth is an essential component for any
developing country to remain competitive in a changing world.
...
Cheap and accessible bandwidth encourages information, ideas and
money to flow quickly within a country and between countries.
Despite the best efforts of backward-looking governments, it allows
a country's citizens to know what is happening in the world and
what the world thinks about what is happening in their country. The
world's tyrants may still be able to dominate their citizens, but
they are that bit more vulnerable when faced with a freer flow of
information about their deeds. Recent crises in places as diverse
as Burma, Tibet and Zimbabwe attest to the power of information to
influence those in power, even if it does not necessarily change
who is in power.
There is a connection between the social and the economic. If it
costs your country USD 7,000-10,000 per megabit per second (Mbps )
per month - one of the units used to price bandwidth - to
communicate with the rest of the world, you are likely to do less
of it than another country where the same bandwidth sells for below
USD 1,000 per Mbps per month. Those developing countries that have
access to cheap bandwidth have some chance of staying ahead in the
"dog eat dog" world of the new global economy. They can respond to
new needs in the global economy and not simply rely on the
changeable fortunes of selling agricultural produce, minerals and
tourism.
Used strategically, bandwidth can create new "think work"
industries like business process outsourcing (BPO) and call
centres. For example, a single company in Ghana, ACS, employs 1,200
people doing data processing. The Indian Ocean island of Mauritius
employs between 4,000 and 5,000 people in a combination of BPO and
call centres. Over 10,000 people in the South African city of Cape
Town work in these sectors.
If communications costs are not lowered, then the cost of financing
trade and ultimately the price of the goods themselves will be
higher than necessary for everyone. Many African countries rely on
goods traded between themselves and nearby neighbours. The goods
traded are not simply luxury goods, but also essential foodstuffs
that make up the daily diet of all citizens. Cheap and accessible
bandwidth encourages regional trade integration that helps reduce
air miles: the product grown to meet local demand is not one that
needs to be imported or exported half way round the world.
But perhaps the most crucial impact cheap bandwidth - taken
together with competition - may have is on the cost of transferring
money. There is considerable movement of people both between
neighbouring countries and internationally. Take the example of
West Africa. According to a report by the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) Sahel and West Africa Club
(SWAC), there are three waves of population movement. Since the
early 1960s, 80 million people have moved to the cities from rural
areas. Populations also move from one country to another in West
Africa, and this represents 90% of inter-regional migration.
Finally, West Africans represent 3% of immigrants from non-OECD
countries living in Europe.
Each of these people needs to be able to communicate with their
family. The son who has gone overseas rings his mother back in West
Africa. That same mother rings her grandmother in the village.
Financial remittances flow all the way down this chain of
communication and, according to the International Fund for
Agricultural Development (IFAD), in 2006 these were worth USD 10
billion to West African countries. These remittances exceed the
amount of money spent by international donors. But the cost of
sending that money is around 12% of the total, whereas elsewhere in
the world, such as Latin America, it has fallen to 6%. Cheaper
communications and competition can bring cheaper transaction costs,
and more of this money will arrive in developing countries.
The first wave of the communications revolution in Africa was the
spread of mobile phones, which are now within reach of 60-70% of
the continent's population. By contrast, the internet is only
accessed by 12-15% of the population. Until recently, the
experience of the internet in Africa has been like having to eat a
three-course meal by sucking it through a straw: time-consuming,
unreliable and expensive.
While new mobile interfaces will increasingly allow mobile internet
access, the second wave of the communications revolution will be
the spread of relatively cheap internet use. For developing
countries, particularly in Africa, the internet has been the poor
cousin of much more widely distributed technologies like mobile
phones and radio. However, despite the limitations of speed and
cost, a surprisingly large number of people use it.
Based on national survey samples from a range of twelve African
countries of different income levels, between 2-15% of the
population use the internet (except in the two poorest countries)
and 1-8% use it on a daily basis (except for the four poorest
countries). On this basis, there might easily be tens of thousands
or hundreds of thousands of broadband subscribers depending on the
size of country. Literacy plays a part, but probably not as big a
part as price.
There is a clear link between the price of international bandwidth
and the retail price of voice and internet services to the
consumer. However, this link is not just a result of the price of
international bandwidth, but also a reflection of both its cost and
availability within a country. Cheaper international bandwidth
means that there should be cheaper national bandwidth. Indeed,
without this occurring, anomalies are found, such as where it costs
more to communicate between neighbouring countries or two cities
within a country than it does to link the capital and a European or
North American destination.
Except with widely distributed rural populations where satellite is
more appropriate, the cheapest bandwidth can be delivered using
fibre.
International bandwidth prices in Africa have come down for a
number of reasons. There has been an extended discussion about how
to ensure open and competitive access to new international
fibre-optic cables currently being built. As part of this process,
national internet service provider (ISP) associations have lobbied
the telecoms companies selling bandwidth and achieved price
reductions. At the same time, the presence of two to three cable
projects on either side of the continent ensures that each offers
competitive pricing.
Through a combination of these factors, the price of bandwidth has
gone from USD 7,000-10,000 per Mbps per month to USD 500-1,000 per
Mbps per month due to two new cables (called SEACOM and TEAMS) that
will be completed in mid-2009. These low international prices will
put pressure on national operators to lower national prices, as it
will be difficult to charge more for taking traffic between cities
in an African country than for going all the way from that country
to Europe.
Although market pressure has done a lot of the work in lowering
prices, international organisations and African governments have
also played their part. The World Bank's involvement in financing
one of the cables (called EASSy) in a way that ensured open and
fair access set the terms of the debate and also helped shape the
market. In addition, the South African government declared a
landing station for the SAT-3 cable, over which it has a monopoly,
an "essential national facility". This has enabled the country's
regulator to insist on co-location for a new competitor company,
Neotel. The Mauritius regulator ICTA instituted a price
determination against the monopoly fibre operator Mauritius Telecom
that enabled much cheaper prices to be put in place.
Once a fibre cable has reached the coast of a country, the key
problem is then getting a truly national backbone in place. On the
evidence so far, the private sector will only deliver national
backbone capacity to a relatively small percentage of the
population. Understandably, operators have to have a sufficient
return to justify investing in relatively expensive capital
projects like infrastructure. Except in the markets of larger
countries or in the wealthier segments of national markets, there
has been little incentive to invest. The effect of this is that
traditionally there has only been one infrastructure operator, or
"one and a half" infrastructure operators - the latter case being
where competitors spring up in metro areas and on routes between
main metro cities. So the issue is: how does one incentivise wider
national roll-out without simply returning to the uncompetitive,
monopoly position that was in place before liberalisation, and
which resulted in high national rates?
While infrastructure competition does produce some level of price
competition, its impact is limited. Two competitors on national
backbone prices - even over busy national routes - rarely produce
more than a 10-20% difference in price over the mid to long term.
For example, in Uganda, where there are two infrastructure
operators, the reduction in prices over three years has been 13%.
Africa's policy-makers and regulators have adopted a range of
different approaches to creating infrastructure competition, not
all of which are coherent, but will affect national backbone
prices. ...
But whether the policy route taken is to create a national fibre
network or simply "in-fill" those places the market will not reach,
these different approaches may all go some significant way to
extending cheap bandwidth to nearly all of a developing country's
citizens.
...
AfricaFocus Bulletin is an independent electronic publication
providing reposted commentary and analysis on African issues, with
a particular focus on U.S. and international policies. AfricaFocus
Bulletin is edited by William Minter.
AfricaFocus Bulletin can be reached at [email protected]. Please
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