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Zimbabwe: Voters' Roll Follies
AfricaFocus Bulletin
July 23, 2013 (130723)
(Reposted from sources cited below)
Editor's Note
"The analysis also revealed a number of discrepancies between
census data and registered voters across all age groups. For
instance there are approximately 831,482 people in the age group
40-49 years. However it is worrying that the voters' roll reflects
1,250,989 registered voters in this age group. Of particular
concern is the age group 80 years or more which according to census
data has an estimated population of 155,653, while the registered
voters of the same group are 343,187, some of whom are as old as
114 years old." - Zimbabwe Election Support Network (NESN), July
12, 2013
This AfricaFocus Bulletin, not sent out by e-mail but available on
the web at http://www.africafocus.org/docs13/zim1307b.php) contains
two parallel civil society reports, from the Research and Advocacy
Unit and the Zimbabwe Election Support Network, with analyses of
the Zimbabwe Voters' Roll being used for the July 31 election. Also
included is a statement by the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition
following the first round of "special voting" by Zimbabwe security
forces.
Another AfricaFocus Bulletin, sent out by e-mail and available on
the web at http://www.africafocus.org/docs13/zim1307a.php,
contains excerpts from testimony before the U.S. Congress by Dewa
Mavhinga of Human Rights Watch on the status of human rights and
security reform in Zimbabwe in the period preceding the election.
Both of today's Bulletins focus on the current situation preceding
elections, documenting the absence of the minimum conditions for a
fair election. For an analysis that probes the background to this
situation over the previous four years, read the review by Tim
Scarnecchia of the new book from Solidarity Peace Trust, The Hard
Road To Reform: The Politics Of Zimbabwe's Global Political
Agreement, edited by Brain Raftopolous.
http://www.africanarguments.org / direct URL:
http://tinyurl.com/l8p574a
The Solidarity Peace Trust book is available on Kindle at
http://www.africafocus.org/books/isbn.php?B00DD03DG2 The
introduction and much of the first chapter can be read as a preview
on Amazon.
Recent news of interest includes:
- "Zanu-PF 'diamond whistleblower' Chindori-Chininga dies in car
crash," Violet Gonda, SW Radio Africa, June 21, 2013
direct URL: http://tinyurl.com/kdyoxca
- "Zuma sacrifices top aide in yet another Zimbabwe capitulation,"
Simon Allison, Daily Maverick, July 22, 2013
direct URL: http://tinyurl.com/n37evr7
For current news see, among many other sources,
http://www.swradioafrica.com/ and http://allafrica.com The first
has news and commentary from a wide range of opposition sources,
while the second includes among its sources the ZANU-PF linked
Herald newspaper.
Added July 25, 2013
For even more sources see
http://www.google.co.zw/elections/ed/zw
Added July 28, 2013
For updates on the election, including maps and tables, visit
http://www.sokwanele.com
Added July 29, 2013
For commentary on the independent role of the trade unions in Zimbabwe, see
http://www.solidaritycenter.org/content.asp?contentid=1689
Added July 31, 2013
Follow twitter hashtag
#zimelections
For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on Zimbabwe, visit
http://www.africafocus.org/country/zimbabwe.php
++++++++++++++++++++++end editor's note+++++++++++++++++
An Audit of Zimbabwe's 2013 Voters' Roll
July 2013
http://researchandadvocacyunit.org/
[This is the second report on the June 2013 Voters' Roll, following
on a brief preliminary report -- RAU (2013), Key Statistics from the
June 2013 Voters' Roll. 5 July 2013, Harare: Research & Advocacy
Unit.]
Executive Summary
This is the second report on an audit of the June 2013 Voters'
Roll. It expands on the previous report, provides a more detailed
analysis of the Roll, and corrects a number of minor errors
A number of key findings merged from the audit:
1. That there are nearly 2 000 000 potential voters aged under 30
who are unregistered.
Very few adults aged under 30 are registered. This is most marked
in the 18 -19 age band, where only 8.87% are registered. In
numerical terms, this means that a total of 1,920,424 people under
the age of 30 ought to be registered as voters but are not. [This
assumes that the vast majority of the adult population comprises
citizens and thus entitled to register as voters.] This is almost
29% of the total adult population of 6,647,779. Since there are
unregistered people in the other age bands, the total percentage of
the entire adult population who ought to be registered as voters
but are not, is considerably higher than 29%.
2. That there are well over 1,000,000 people on the roll who are
either deceased or departed.
If one removes the 1,920,424 unregistered potential voters from the
calculation, the registration rate rises to an impossible 129% of
people aged 30 and over. If an 85% registration rate is assumed,
then over registration rate rises to 52% for these age bands,
representing some 1,732,527 names which are on the roll but ought
not to be. In other words, rather than the some 5,874,115 entries
on the roll there should not be more than 4 141 588.
3. That 63 constituencies have more registered voters than
inhabitants.
This was covered in the Preliminary report and the full details of
those Constituencies with more voters than inhabitants according to
the 2012 Census is given in Appendix 2 of this report.
4. That 41 Constituencies deviate from the average number of voters
per constituency by more than the permitted 20%.
This was also reported in the preliminary report, but here is
expanded. The report points out a number of problems:
- Whilst delimitation has been fixed according to the 2008
specifications, there are three local government authorities [RDCs]
that have been created from existing wards for which redelimitation
is necessary, but not constitutionally possible;
- One Ward in one of these new RDC's has only eight voters
according to Voters' Roll;
- There appears to be no political bias in the distribution of the
over and under-registered Constituencies, but it is also clear that
there is discrimination against urban constituencies. Mbare, for
example, has three times more registered voters than Chipinge East,
which should mean that Mbare should have one and a half seats to
Chipinge East's half seat.
5. The registration rate (as opposed to number registered) of women
is significantly less than that of men, particularly in the
metropolitan provinces.
One must keep in mind that the 52:48 ratio on both the census and
the voters' roll is the ratio of females to males as per the 2012
Census and the ratio of women to men on the roll. It does not
reflect the comparative registration rates. According to the June
2013 Voters' Roll, there is a higher registration rate of women
than that of men in the rural provinces, suggesting that the lower
registration rate of women overall is on account of severe underregistration
of women in the metropolitan provinces. For example,
in Harare Province the registration rate of women is only 63%,
against 83% for men. By contrast, in Mashonaland Central the rate
is 92% for women and 90% for men.
Unevenness also emerges when individual constituencies are
examined, and when considering the registration rate of each gender
in particular age bands. For example Beitbridge East (a
constituency selected merely because it appears first
alphabetically) not only shows considerable bias in registration in
favour of women, and much higher than the 54:46 ratio of the voters
roll as a whole, but also reveals a marked (and sudden) increase in
favour of women in the number of people registered as voters in the
over 50 age bands.
6. There is a marked registration bias in favour of rural
constituencies.
The registration rate differs considerably between rural and urban
areas. Some constituencies comprise both urban and rural wards and
were categorized as �mixed� constituencies. According to the June
2013 Voters' Roll, there are 3 891 425 registered voters in rural
constituencies as opposed to 1 424 047 in urban constituencies and
558 507 in mixed constituencies. This gives a registration rate of
91.9% for rural constituencies, 78.3% for urban constituencies, and
80.7% for �mixed� constituencies.
The registration rate in purely rural constituencies, from which
ZANU PF is regarded as drawing the bulk of its support, is thus
considerably higher (94%) than that in purely urban constituencies
(74%) from which the MDC formations as regarded as drawing most of
their support, that is, about 20% more. This is particularly so in
the over 65+ age bands.
7. Miscellaneous Oddities
Several other oddities, which may be symptomatic of a larger
problem, are worth noting:
- There are numerous reports from people indicating that their
names appear on the voters roll even though they have never
registered to vote.
- The suffixes of the national registration numbers of 44,000
voters have been altered on the roll. These voters thus may
encounter difficulties with over-bureaucratic officials who could
insist on an exact match with ID discs.
- Some married women have noted that, without their consent, their
surnames have been changed on the roll to the surname of their
husbands. This may also cause problems when presenting IDs at the
polling stations.
Zimbabwe: Serious Shortcomings On the Voters' Roll - Missing Urban
Voters and Young Voters
By Zimbabwe Election Support Network, 12 July 2013
http://allafrica.com/stories/201307190545.html
The Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) has noted serious
irregularities in the Voters' Roll purchased by the organisation
from the Office of Registrar General on 19 June, 2013. Through its
preliminary analysis, ZESN has noted that the biggest irregularity
in the Roll is the under registration of voters especially in the
urban wards. For instance ZESN has found that there are about 750
000 missing urban voters and at least 400 000 missing young voters
from the voters' roll.
ZESN conducted a demographic analysis of the Voters' Roll on all
5,890,169 names on the voters' roll from all 1,964 wards and 210
constituencies compared to the official 2012 Census data from the
Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency. The analysis by ZESN shows the
under registration of eligible voters in urban wards with
approximately 750,000 missing urban voters and under registration
of youth voters in urban and rural wards with approximately 400,000
missing young voters. These youth voters are only 5% of registered
voters compared to 20 % in the Zambian election held in 2011.
The analysis also revealed a number of discrepancies between census
data and registered voters across all age groups. For instance
there are approximately 831,482 people in the age group 40-49
years. However it is worrying that the voters' roll reflects
1,250,989 registered voters in this age group. Of particular
concern is the age group 80 years or more which according to census
data has an estimated population of 155,653, while the registered
voters of the same group are 343,187, some of whom are as old as
114 years old. This over registration of elderly voters in urban
and rural wards demonstrates that approximately 250,000 names of
individuals who are likely to be deceased, whose names have not
been removed from the voters' roll.
The provision of electronic copies of the Voters' Roll under the
Amended Electoral Act is a commendable move as it provides greater
transparency to the process. While periodic updates were provided
by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) during the mobile voter
registration exercise from 29 April to 19 May 2013, there have not
been similar updates from the mobile voter registration efforts for
the period 10 June to10 July 2013. Thus, it is not possible to
assess the final state of voter registration. The official
registration figures showed a total 5,890,169 registered voters, as
at 19 June 2013. Using official census figures in Table 1 above, it
is possible to estimate 88.55 % of eligible Zimbabweans are
registered. However, the true registration rate is like lower
because clearly names of deceased persons remain on the roll.
ZESN notes with concern that as the current voters' roll stands,
urban and youth voters have not been given an equal opportunity to
participate in the elections and if this issue is not addressed it
might seriously undermine the credibility of the whole electoral
process. ZESN found a significant disparity between registration
rates in urban and rural wards with registration in urban wards at
67.94% and those in rural wards at 99.97%. For urban voter
registration rates to be comparable with rural registration rates
another 750,000 urban voters must still be registered.
This situation would only have been exacerbated by the just ended
mobile voter registration period because of the distribution of
registration centres, with the majority located in rural areas
which reinforces the inequitable access to voter registration
already reflected on the voters' roll.
ZESN's analysis, which is based on the 2012 Census shows that about
18.24 % of eligible voters are between 18 and 22 (those who became
eligible since the 2008 elections) but just 2,39 % of registered
voters are in this age group - one ninth of the desired number.
Similarly, estimated eligible voters between 23 and 29 are 22, 97%
according to the 2012 Census, but registered voters in this age
group are just 11, 7% or half the desired number. At the same time,
census data shows that 5.5 % - of estimated eligible voters are
between the ages of 70 and 80 while 5.82% of registered voters are
80 years or older.
The Network notes with concern that registration of young people in
Zimbabwe is not only well below 2012 Census estimates it is
significantly lower than registration rates in other African
countries for recent elections. Registration of young voters (under
25) is more than 10% less in Zimbabwe than comparable countries
such as South Africa (16.5%), Kenya (16.86%) and Zambia (20,61%).
It is our view that for registration rates for youth voters to
approximate the 2012 Census another 400,000 voters aged between 18
and 29 need to be registered.
Finally, ZESN is also very concerned about the distribution of
polling stations released on 10 July as compared to the official
registration figures from 19 June. Twenty percent (75 of 394) of
urban wards have more than 1,000 voters per polling. Of particular
note, Epworth Local Board Ward 7 has 7,920 registered voters, but
only one polling station. Unlike the Constitutional Referendum
voters will be required to vote in the ward in which they are
registered.
ZESN therefore urges the ZEC to consider the extension of the
mobile voter registration exercise to ensure the missing urban
voters and young voter have an opportunity to exercise their right
register to vote. This is in tandem with Section 6(3) of the Sixth
Schedule of the Constitution which provides for at least thirty
days of special and intensive voter registration and voters' roll
inspection. In addition we call for the removal of about 250 000
people who are likely to be deceased from the voter's roll.
We reiterate our call for uploading the electronic copies of the
final Voters Roll with updates of voters registered during the
mobile registration from 10 June to 09 July 2013 on the ZEC website
to enable citizens to continue to inspect and check their names.
ZESN remains committed to promoting efforts for a free and fair
election where each eligible voter has an opportunity to exercise
their right to vote.
CiZC Statement on the Special Voting Exercise & ZEC's Readiness to
Deliver a free and Fair election on July 31
Issued by: Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition
http://www.crisiszimbabwe.org/
Contact Persons:
- Thabani Nyoni, Spokesperson, Mobile: +263 772 779 880 /+263
712 642 932, Email: [email protected]
- MacDonald Lewanika, Director, Mobile: +263 772 913 418,
Email: [email protected]; [email protected]
Email: [email protected]; [email protected]
Website: http://www.crisiszimbabwe.org
18 July 2013
The Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition (CiZC) would like to add its voice
to the growing crescendo of electoral stakeholders expressing grave
concerns and disapproval of the shambolic, tragic and shameful way
in which the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) conducted the just
ended Special Voting Exercise on 14, 15 and 16 July 2013.
The shambolic and opaque manner in which the Special Voting was
conducted has shown beyond refutation that the Elections Management
body is yet to fully prepare to conduct peaceful, free, fair and
credible elections in Zimbabwe.
ZEC's performance has begged the question- if they cannot be
faithful over little (80 000 special voters) how can they be
faithful over much (a Harmonized Election with an excess of over 6
million eligible voters)? As part of the electoral process, the
bungling that was witnessed during the special voting process has
got serious ramifications on the integrity of ZEC as the
administering body and on the election itself.
The noted discrepancies and apparent ill preparedness noticed
during the special voting process calls for serious and honest
reflections by ZEC and the people of Zimbabwe on the veracity of
claims made by ZEC they are ready to conduct elections. Conditions
in the country already show that the nation is being marshaled to
an election without choice and under conditions that are not
conducive to the conduct of peaceful, free, fair and credible
elections.
Of serious concern, amongst other issues, to the Coalition were the
following observations:
- the inordinate delays in the provision of essential voting
materials such as ballot papers, ink and ballot boxes at most
voting centers during the period earmarked for special voting,
which led to 'special voters' being subjected to long waits,
fatigue, and long queues.
- Allegations, on good authority, that some security forces were
made to write down their ballot paper serial numbers for their
senior's prying eyes, infringing on the sacrosanct principle of
free choice and secrecy of the vote as well as insulation and
security of the voter.
- The disenfranchisement of some members of the Police, the army
and other special voters, whose authorizations were either
misplaced or not found amidst the ZEC administered chaos.
- Partiality by ZEC officials in their handling and addressing of
political actors competing in this election, as exemplified by
sentiments by ZEC Vice Chairperson Kazembe, who put the blame of
the chaos, confusion and bungling on the MDCs, instead of owning up
and apologizing. Leaving many wondering whether she is an
Independent Commissioner or a Political party Commissar.
Even more unacceptable is the fact that the Electoral Commission
did not maturely pick themselves up, apologize to the nation and
professionally dust their act.
The Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, among other Civil Society groups,
at the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Summit in
Maputo on June 15 warned that there was need for more time and
better preparation for the 2013 harmonized elections. Since the
proclamation of the Election day, there has been ample evidence
that ZEC and the country are clearly not ready to stage a peaceful,
free, fair and credible election. Amongst the telling signs have
been the following, which are not conclusive:
- The partisan nature that state broadcaster and newspapers
continue to carry out their work with no sanctions and action by
ZEC as it is constitutionally mandated to do.
- The fact that ZEC, save for the deceit of publicly calling for
written applications, also employed delaying tactics to accrediting
civil society organizations for voter education and observation
until the mobile voter registration process lapsed on July 9,
making the issue of our exclusion a fait accompli.
- The exclusionary nature of the voter registration exercise which
left thousands of Zimbabweans who were willing to register stranded
without recourse after ZEC refused to extend the registration
period in spite of the fact that the constitution allows it to, but
more importantly to uphold the principle of inclusion and allowing
everyone who wants to participate to do so.
The continued opaqueness around the availability and sourcing of
funds to run the election.
- The disputes around the timing and legal framework and prerequisites
for the elections.
- The clear and accurate assessment by the facilitator and SADC on
the state of readiness of Zimbabwe to conduct elections and the
minimum reforms that are required to do so with some credibility.
- The consistent calls for reforms and a salubrious environment by
CSO's.
The Zimbabwe Elections Commission is carrying the expectations and
hopes of millions of Zimbabweans, some of whom are beginning to
think that ZEC's shambolic display may be for deceitful reasons,
which remain mysterious and are not for the good of the Republic of
Zimbabwe.
The Coalition cannot avoid concluding that the ZEC, despite its
deliberate assertions to the contrary, is not ready to conduct a
credible election, and circumstances have set it up for a
calamitous and torrid time as the obvious result of the above
stated shortcomings have began to rob the electoral process of its
credibility risking another sham election on July 31.
The Coalition has observed that the above is at variance and in
contravention of both the Constitution of Zimbabwe and the
aspirations and expectations of Zimbabwean as espoused in the Feya
Feya Principles drafted and adopted by over 83 organisations in
Bulawayo on June 27 2013 (https://twitter.com/feyaXfeya).
A judgment of the electoral processes so far, measured against the
the Feya Feya Campaign's principals, makes the Crisis in Zimbabwe
Coalition pronounce, with a tortured heart, that part of the tenets
have been flagrantly violated, some possibly beyond redress.
The Coalition specifically refers to Feya Feya Principle 1
demanding ZEC neutrality, Feya Feya Principle 6 that ZEC should
generally act with honesty and integrity, Feya Feya Principle 5
that voting should be done in secrecy, as well as Feya Feya
Principle 10 that all eligible Zimbabweans must be allowed to vote.
The Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition continues to insist on Feya Feya
Principle 2 for fair media coverage of candidates and contesting
parties by the Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation (ZBC) and
Zimpapers, Feya Feya Principles 7 that demands security sector
neutrality and Feya Feya Principle 11 that regional actors and
solidarity partners should not encourage Zimbabwe to compromise on
international standards and best practices on democratic elections.
The Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition commits to the attention of the
SADC and African Union (AU) peoples as represented by the two
blocs' Observer Missions, the unfolding drama in Zimbabwe and asks
for their urgent action as guarantors to encourage immediate
remedial action without foreclosing the possibility of postponing
the July 31 election as a solution. Based on current form, July 31
is clearly a disaster waiting to happen, denting the credibility of
Zimbabwe, SADC, the African Union and the principle of African
Solutions to African problems.
Ends/
AfricaFocus Bulletin is an independent electronic publication
providing reposted commentary and analysis on African issues, with
a particular focus on U.S. and international policies. AfricaFocus
Bulletin is edited by William Minter.
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