Editor's Note
Reporting on recent surveys from 34 African countries,
Afrobarometer reports that the average preferred destination for
those seeking to migrate breaks down with 29% opting for a country
in their own region, 7% for elsewhere in Africa, 27% for Europe,
22% for North America, and 13% for some other region. The real
message of this and other reports, however, is not a single
highest-ranked location, but the wide diversity of migration
experiences. Breakdowns by region within Africa and by country
make this lesson even more pointed.
The Afrobarometer report, for example, cites ranges from highs
over 80% opting for their own region (Lesotho, eSwatini) to under 5% (Senegal, Gambia, Cape Verde,
Morocco, and Mauritius). Of the 20 largest migration corridors in
the latest (2017) estimates from the United Nations, 11 are within
the continent, 5 from Africa to Europe, and 4 from Africa to
Western Asia.
This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains excerpts and selected
infographics from the World Migration Report 2018 and from the
Afrobarometer report, published in March this year, highlighting
the diverse statistical patterns.
Another AfricaFocus sent out today, and available on the web at
http://www.africafocus.org/docs19/migr1904b.php, highlights the
dangers of political mobilization of anti-immigrant sentiment
(xenophobia), particularly aimed at immigrants from other African
countries, evident in recent events in South Africa, but also
potentially a source of violence in other African countries as
well.
For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on migration, visit
http://www.africafocus.org/migrexp.php
See, in particular, for an overview from the UN Economic
Commission for Africa:
http://www.africafocus.org/docs18/migr1808.php
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Migration and Migrants: Africa
World Migration Report Update
http://tinyurl.com/y9o3oz3z
This World Migration Report update provides an overview of the
latest data on international migrants in Africa. It is based on
the most recent estimates from the United Nations Department of
Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA). Released in December 2017,
the international migrant stock datasets estimate the number of
international migrants by age, sex and origin.
In addition to presenting current data on international migrants
in Africa, the update briefly discusses trends in African
migration.
Migration in Africa involves large numbers of migrants moving both
within and out of the region. As shown in figure 1, in 2017 over
19 million Africans were living in another African country, a
significant increase from 2015 when 16 million Africans were
estimated to be living within the region. The number of Africans
living in a different region only grew moderately during the same
period, from around 16 million in 2015 to around 17 million in
2017.
Figure 1 reflects that since 2000 international migration within
the African region has increased significantly. And since 1990,
the number of African migrants living outside of the region has
more than doubled, with the growth to Europe most pronounced. In
2017, most African-born migrants living outside the region were
residing in Europe (9.3 million), Asia (4.4 million) and Northern
America (2.6 million).
One of the most striking aspects to note about international
migrants in Africa, as shown in figure 1, is the small number of
migrants who were born outside of the region and have since moved
there. Between 2015 and 2017, the number of migrants born outside
the region remained virtually unchanged (around 2 million), most
of whom were from Asia and Europe.
The African countries with the largest number of emigrants tend to
be in the north of the region. These are shown on the left-hand
side of figure 2, where countries are ranked by their overall
numbers of migrants (i.e. the combination of immigrants in the
country and emigrants from the country). In 2017, Egypt had the
largest number of people living abroad, followed by Morocco,
Somalia, Sudan and Algeria. In terms of the number of immigrants,
South Africa remains most significant destination country in
Africa, with around 4 million international migrants residing in
the country (or around 7% of its total population). The number of
migrants moving to South Africa increased by nearly 1 million
between 2015 and 2017. Other countries with high immigrant
populations as a proportion of their total populations included
Gabon (14%), Libya (12%), Djibouti (12%), the Gambia (10%) and
Côte d�Ivoire (9%).
The migration corridors above, calculated on the basis of the
number of people born in the origin country now resident in the
destination country, include 11 between neighboring African
countries, 5 from North Africa to Europe, and 4 from North Africa
to the Middle East.
There are significant migration corridors within and from Africa,
many of which are related to geographic proximity and historical
ties, as well as displacement factors. The size of a migration
corridor from country A to country B is measured as the number of
immigrants from country A who were residing in country B in 2017.
�
In search of opportunity: Young and educated Africans most likely
to consider moving abroad
Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 288 | Josephine Appiah-Nyamekye Sanny,
Carolyn Logan, and E. Gyimah-Boadi
March 25, 2019
http://www.afrobarometer.org � Direct URL:
http://tinyurl.com/y53nunr2
Summary
By 2050, it is projected that one in every four humans will be
African as the continent doubles its population, accounting for
more than half of global population growth (United Nations, 2015;
World Economic Forum, 2017). Even with a land mass greater than
India, China, the United States, and Europe combined, and blessed
with one-third of the earth�s mineral resources (Custers &
Mattlysen, 2009; Bermudez-Lugo et al., 2014), will Africa be able
to provide the livelihood opportunities its people demand and
need?
Despite significant economic growth in many African countries over
the past two decades (United Nations, 2018), a substantial number
of Africans still see leaving their country to seek out a better
future as their best option. Willing to risk abuse and
enslavement, death in the desert or at sea, and hardship upon
arrival, African emigrants have placed themselves on front pages
and political agendas around the world (Kekana, 2018; O�Toole,
2018).
Although only 14% of the 258 million international migrants
worldwide in 2017 were born in Africa � one-third the number of
Asian-born migrants (United Nations, 2017) � sub-Saharan African
nations account for eight of the 10 fastest-growing international
migrant populations since 2010 (Pew Research Center, 2018). The
number of emigrants from each of these sub- Saharan countries grew
by 50% or more between 2010 and 2017. At the country level, only
Syria had a higher rate of growth in the number of citizens living
in other countries.
While migration can have positive effects � filling labor gaps in
destination countries (Rapoza, 2017) and producing remittances to
help families back home (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2017)
� it can also have negative consequences. Analysts have pointed to
its drain on emerging economies (Capuano & Marfouk, 2013), and
populist movements in the West have decried immigration as a
threat to domestic employment, security, and national culture
(Galston, 2018; Roth, 2017; Ratcliffe, 2017).
For policy makers faced with managing the challenges of
international migration, a detailed understanding of its forms,
patterns, and causes is critical. A growing literature explores
�push� and �pull� factors shaping emigration, highlighting the
failure of African countries to create economic opportunities for
their citizens (Kainth, 2015; Stanojoska & Petreveski, 2015;
Gheasi & Nijkamp, 2017) but also arguing for the importance of
social and political factors (Flahaux & De Haas, 2016).
This dispatch draws on new Afrobarometer data from 34 national
surveys to explore the perceptions and preferences of ordinary
Africans when it comes to international migration. Findings show
that more than one-third of Africans have considered emigrating,
though far fewer are making actual plans to leave. The data
support concerns about human-resource drain: The young and the
educated are most likely to consider going abroad. Finding work
and escaping economic hardship are the most frequently cited
reasons to consider emigrating � fully in line with our earlier
findings that unemployment is the most important problem that
Africans want their governments to address and that among the
United Nations� Sustainable Development Goals, SDG8 (�decent work
and economic growth�) is the highest priority for ordinary
Africans (Coulibaly, Silwé, & Logan, 2018).
The most preferred destination for potential emigrants is neither
Europe nor the United States, but another African country.
Afrobarometer survey
Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan research network that
conducts public attitude surveys on democracy, governance,
economic conditions, and related issues across more than 30
countries in Africa. Six rounds of surveys were conducted between
1999 and 2015, and findings from Round 7 surveys (2016/2018) are
currently being released. Interested readers may follow our
releases, including our Pan-Africa Profiles series of Round 7
cross- country analyses, at #VoicesAfrica and sign up for our
distribution list at http://www.afrobarometer.org.
Afrobarometer conducts face-to-face interviews in the language of
the respondent�s choice with nationally representative samples
that yield country-level results with margins of error of +/-2 to
+/-3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
This dispatch relies on data from 45,823 interviews completed in
34 countries between September 2016 and September 2018 (see
Appendix Table A.1 for a list of countries and fieldwork dates).
The countries covered are home to almost 80% of the continent�s
population. The data are weighted to ensure nationally
representative samples. Each country is weighted equally; the
Africa-wide data below are thus averages of national data, without
adjustment for the size of the national populations.
Key findings
- On average across 34 countries, one in four Africans (25%) say
someone in their family has lived in another country during the
past three years. About one in five (21%) say they depend at least
�a little bit� on remittances sent from abroad.
- More than one in three Africans (37%) have considered
emigrating, including 18% who have given this �a lot� of thought.
A majority of citizens say they have thought at least �a little
bit� about leaving Cabo Verde (57%), Sierra Leone (57%), the
Gambia (56%), Togo (54%), and São Tomé and Príncipe (54%).
- Among those who have considered emigrating (�potential
emigrants�), on average one in 10 (9%) � or about 3% of the total
population � say they are currently making preparations to move.
These proportions are highest in Zimbabwe and Lesotho.
- Young adults and highly educated citizens are most likely to
consider leaving their country: Around half of each group say they
have considered it at least �a little bit.�
- In contrast, individuals� experience of poverty does not have a
large impact on their interest in emigrating, though it does
significantly affect the reasons why they consider such a move:
The poorest are much more likely to see emigration as a means of
escape from their hardships, while the wealthiest are more likely
to cite diverse motivations such as education, adventure, and
business opportunities.
- Among potential emigrants, more than one-third would like to
move to another country within their region (29%) or elsewhere in
Africa (7%). This preference for staying on the continent is
especially strong in Southern Africa (58%) and weakest in North
Africa (8%). Europe (27%) and North America (22%) are the most
preferred destinations outside Africa.
- In almost all countries, by far the most frequently cited
reasons for emigrating are to look for work (44% on average) and
to escape poverty and economic hardship (29%).
- In line with widespread interest in intra-regional migration and
the pursuit of economic opportunity, a majority (56%) of Africans
think people should be able to move freely across international
borders within their region. But the same proportion (56%) say
they find it difficult to cross borders to work or trade in
another country.
Family abroad and remittances
Since general ideas about emigration may be shaped, in part, by
family experiences, Afrobarometer started by asking respondents
whether they or anyone in their family had gone to live in another
country for more than three months during the previous three
years. On average across 34 countries, one in four people (25%)
say they or relatives had lived abroad, ranging from about one in
10 in Madagascar (9%), Tanzania (10%), Tunisia (10%), and Zambia
(11%) to more than four in 10 in Lesotho (44%), Zimbabwe (43%),
and Niger (41%) (Figure 1).
When asked to what extent, if at all, they depend on receiving
remittances from relatives or friends living in other countries,
about one-fifth (21%) of respondents say they rely �a little bit�
(10%), �somewhat� (7%), or �a lot� (4%) on such monies from
abroad. Almost half (47%) of Gambians say they depend at least �a
little bit� on remittances, followed by 37% of Basotho, 31% of
Cabo Verdeans, and 30% of Nigerians, compared to fewer than one in
10 Tanzanians (9%).
Desire to emigrate
How many Africans are thinking about leaving their home country to
live elsewhere? On average across 34 countries, almost four in 10
(37%) say they have considered migrating, including 18% who have
given this �a lot� of thought and another 19% who have considered
it �somewhat� or �a little bit� (Figure 2). In five countries,
more than half of respondents have at least considered migrating
(�a little,� �somewhat,� or �a lot�): Cabo Verde (57%), Sierra
Leone (57%), the Gambia (56%), Togo (54%), and São Tomé and
Príncipe (54%). More than one-third of citizens in Cabo Verde,
Sierra Leone, and São Tomé and Príncipe have thought �a lot� about
leaving their country, and one-fifth or more of citizens have
given serious consideration to departing in another 12 countries.
Tanzania (14%) and Madagascar (13%) are the only countries where
fewer than one in seven citizens have even considered emigration.
Only 3% have given this prospect serious consideration in
Madagascar, far below all other countries.
Regionally, the desire to migrate is highest in Central Africa and
West Africa, where more than four in 10 citizens (46% and 41%,
respectively) have given thought to leaving their country (Figure
3). In contrast, fewer than one in three have considered
emigration in Southern and East Africa (31% and 28%,
respectively).
Respondents were asked: How much, if at all, have you considered
moving to another country to live? Potential emigrants are more
numerous among men (40%) and urban residents (44%) than among
women (33%) and rural dwellers (32%), while thoughts of moving
abroad are about equally common among the relatively well-off and
the poor 1 (Figure 4).
But differences by respondents� education level and age confirm
concerns about migration�s draining effect on emerging economies,
especially the resultant loss of valuable human resources: The
most-educated and the youngest adults are most likely to consider
leaving their country. On average, more than half (51%) of all
respondents with post- secondary educational qualifications say
they have given at least �a little� consideration to emigrating,
including one in four (24%) who have considered it �a lot.� By
comparison, potential emigrants make up 43% and 29% of respondents
with secondary and primary schooling, respectively, and 24% of
those with no formal education.
Similarly, almost half (47%) of the youngest respondents (aged
18-25 years) report having considered moving elsewhere � about two
to three times as many as in cohorts above age 45. This pattern of
larger proportions of potential emigrants among younger and
better- educated respondents is the same in almost all surveyed
countries (see breakdown by country, age group, and education
level in Appendix Table A.2). But countries vary widely in the
proportion of their youngest adults (aged 18-25) who have thought
�a lot� about leaving, ranging from one in 10 or fewer in Burkina
Faso (10%) and Madagascar (6%) to the extreme of 53% in Cabo Verde
(Figure 5).
Staying close to home?
Despite the notion that Africans are on the move in search of
greener pastures outside the continent, the International
Organization for Migration (2017) reports that in fact more than
80% of Africa�s migration involves moving within the continent.
This is to some degree reflected in responses when Afrobarometer
asked those who have considered emigration where they would be
most likely to. A plurality of potential migrants express a
preference for a destination within Africa: 29% cite another
country within their region, while 7% look elsewhere on the
continent (Figure 8).
For many others, the real costs and risks of emigrating may
eventually temper ambitions to move around the globe, rather than
around the region or the continent. But at least in the
prospective stages, substantial numbers also consider destinations
outside Africa: About one in four would prefer Europe (27%),
followed closely by North America (22%); Australia and the Middle
East (3% each) and Asia and Central/South America (2% each)
attract much less interest.
Southern Africans are most likely to want to stay within the
region (51%) or on the continent (7%), although there is wide
variation across individual countries in the region (Figure 9).
More than eight in 10 potential migrants in Lesotho (84%) and
eSwatini (83%), and more than two- thirds in Malawi (71%) and
Zimbabwe (67%), prefer to remain within the Southern Africa
region. In contrast, if residents of South Africa � the primary
destination country within the region � are considering migration,
they are far more likely to be looking outside the continent (69%
say Europe, North America, or some other non-African destination),
as are potential emigrants in Mauritius (87%) and Madagascar
(76%).
Compared to Southern Africa, residents of other regions are, to
varying degrees, more likely to look outward. West Africans look
beyond the continent by a margin of nearly 3 to 1 (72% vs. 25%)
(Figure 10). But again, variation within the region is enormous:
In Niger, 83% would stay in Africa, as would 63% of Burkinabè, but
in Sierra Leone (91%), Senegal (91%), the Gambia (94%), and Cabo
Verde (98%), more than nine out of 10 potential emigrants would
opt to leave the continent. Europe is the first choice for
Ivoirians (45%), Gambians (47%), Senegalese (54%), and Cabo
Verdeans (66%), while Liberians (47%) and Sierra Leoneans (56%)
are more inclined to look toward North America.
In both Central and East Africa, an average of four in 10 (41%
each) say they would stay within the region or the continent,
while majorities (56% and 57%, respectively) would leave Africa
(Figure 11). Only a handful of potential emigrants in North Africa
would stay within the region or continent (just 14% in Sudan, 7%
in Tunisia, and 1% in Morocco). Instead, Europe is the most
popular destination for a majority in Morocco (68%) and Tunisia
(58%), while the preferred destination for Sudanese would be a
Middle Eastern country.
Views on cross-border movement
In line with high interest in intra-regional migration and the
pursuit of economic opportunity, a majority of Africans favour
free cross-border movement within their region. But they also say
that crossing borders is difficult.
In Afrobarometer�s Round 6 survey (2014/2015), 56% of respondents
across 36 African countries said they �agree� or �agree very
strongly� that people should be able to move freely across borders
in order to work or trade in other countries in the region.
Regionally, the call for citizens to be allowed to move freely
across international borders is endorsed most strongly in West
Africa (66%) and East Africa (64%) and is least popular in North
Africa (38%) and Central Africa (44%) (Figure 16).
More than three-fourths of citizens support free cross-border
movement in Burkina Faso (81%), Benin (78%), and Kenya (76%). But
in 15 countries, fewer than half of citizens agree. The view that
governments should limit cross-border movement to protect citizens
against foreign job- seekers and low-priced goods is strongest in
Namibia (60%), Gabon (60%), Tunisia (58%), Botswana (57%), and
Madagascar (51%) (Figure 17).
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is
closest to your views?
Statement 1: People living in [your region of Africa] should be
able to move freely across international borders in order to trade
or work in other countries.
Statement 2: Because foreign migrants take away jobs, and foreign
traders sell their goods at very cheap prices, governments should
protect their own citizens and limit the cross-border movement of
people and goods. (% who �agree� or �strongly agree� that people
should be able to move freely across borders)
Conclusion
A sampling of the views of ordinary citizens in 34 African
countries appears to confirm widespread concerns about the
potential scale of out-migration. More than one-third of Africans
have at least considered emigrating to another country, including
nearly one in five who have given it a lot of thought. And while
the proportion of citizens who are actually making plans to move
is far lower, this still represents very substantial numbers of
potential emigrants in absolute terms.
The profiles of those who consider leaving, and the reasons they
give for contemplating this radical option, are revealing. While
it is commonly assumed that most migrants are simply a country�s
most impoverished citizens, Afrobarometer data show that � by
large margins � youth and education are far more strongly
correlated with interest in emigration than poverty. While we see
a mix of both �push� and �pull� factors in the reasons that people
cite for considering emigration, the youthful, educated profile of
the pool of potential emigrants suggests that the pull of
opportunity is the key factor here, rather than the push of
poverty. Poverty has more impact on shaping the particular
motivations individuals cite for seeking greener pastures, but it
does not appear to significantly affect the overall desire to do
so.
These findings provide some appreciation of the importance of
stemming the tide of migrants within and out of Africa � not just
for destination countries that are concerned about their ability
to absorb large numbers of immigrants, but also for the countries
of origin, which are at risk of losing some of their most
educated, motivated, and creative young people. In large numbers,
Africans are considering � and even taking concrete steps toward �
moving abroad, whether within their regional neighbourhood or
across the globe. They are overwhelmingly motivated by a hunger
for jobs and economic opportunity that they lack at home. In
response, African governments must continue to grow their
economies and expand opportunities for gainful employment and
secure livelihoods at home in order to ensure that they continue
to benefit from the productivity and creativity of their youngest,
most motivated, and most productive citizens.
Further, in light of strong popular interest in intra-African
migration, it is telling that while a majority of Africans demand
free movement across international borders within their region,
the same proportion find it difficult to cross borders to work or
trade in another country. African leaders have little control over
stringent entry rules for the European Union and the United
States, but they can, in the spirit of integration, act on
citizens� call for the removal of barriers to intra-African
migration.
AfricaFocus Bulletin is an independent electronic publication
providing reposted commentary and analysis on African issues, with
a particular focus on U.S. and international policies. AfricaFocus
Bulletin is edited by William Minter.
AfricaFocus Bulletin can be reached at [email protected]. Please
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information about reposted material, please contact directly the
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