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Note: This document is from the archive of the Africa Policy E-Journal, published
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Africa: ECA Report
Any links to other sites in this file from 1996 are not clickable,
given the difficulty in maintaining up-to-date links in old files.
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Africa: ECA Report
Date Distributed (ymd): 960611
ECA/672 23 May 1996
ECONOMIC RECOVERY CONFIRMED IN AFRICA
1995 GDP Highest Since Start of Decade, ECA Report States
ADDIS ABABA, 23 May (ECA) -- The African economy experienced
its highest annual growth rate since the beginning of the
decade in 1995, with the overall gross domestic product (GDP)
climbing by 2.3 per cent during the year compared to 2.1 per
cent in 1994 and 0.7 per cent in 1993, according to the
"Report on the Economic and Social Situation in Africa, 1996"
issued by the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA).
"This is a further positive confirmation of the recovery
that has taken place in Africa in recent years," said the
report, which was released earlier this month. Only three
African countries experienced negative growth in 1995 compared
to 14 the previous year; eight countries recorded 6 per cent
growth compared to two in 1994.
The improving economic situation also bodes well for the
implementation of the unprecedented United Nations System-Wide
Initiative on Africa, a 10-year, $25 billion endeavour aimed
at ensuring basic education, improved health services
delivery and food security on the continent, among other
objectives. The Initiative, which was the result of a
consensus between African governments and their development
partners on how to meet the continent's major challenges, was
launched in March by Secretary-General Boutros BoutrosGhali
and United Nations agency heads.
Another indication of the positive economic upturn was that
the region's 33 least developed countries also recorded a
positive economic performance for the first time since 1992,
with total GDP increasing to 2.4 per cent in 1995 compared
to -2.4 per cent and -1.6 per cent in 1993 and 1994, the
report said.
Although these average growth rates for the continent mask
variations in country and sub-regional performances, the
report noted that for the first time since the 1970s numerous
national economies are now growing faster than their
populations. This is "a welcome sign that overall growth
trends in Africa are beginning to gather momentum towards the
recovery evident in the global economy", the report said.
Nineteen countries (five in southern Africa and eight in
eastern Africa) experienced GDP growth in excess of Africa's
current 2.9 per cent population growth rate.
But even with the recovery in GDP growth rates, the
continent's share of aggregate world trade and output remains
far below its percentage of world population. Africa's share
in world trade has fallen steadily over the years, from 5 per
cent in 1980 to 3.1 per cent in 1990, to 2.3 per cent in 1994,
and 2.2 per cent in 1995. The decline of Africa's percentage
in the trade of developing countries as a whole has been even
more dramatic: from 14.9 per cent in 1980, to 10.9 per cent
in 1990, and 6.4 per cent in 1995. Compared with the 1980s,
Africa's GDP in the 1990s has accounted for less and less of
the global GDP.
In addition, Africa's share of the world's population is on
the increase: it reached an estimated 12 per cent in 1995.
Therefore, the continent's overall GDP growth rate has yet to
keep pace with its population growth rate. Given a population
growth rate of 2.9 per cent in 1995, average per capita income
actually declined 0.6 per cent for the region as a whole.
The report noted that in addition to the problem of a
rapidly growing population, many of the factors responsible
for the weak economic performance in Africa over the years are
still present. Nevertheless, the prospects of the continent
emerging from these problems and challenges are better than
ever.
"Africa is no longer an undifferentiated mass of poorly
performing economies", the report said. "Differences among
individual African countries and groups of countries with the
potential for rapid growth and socio-economic transformation
have persisted, but current indications are that the capacity
of African societies and economies for real and sustained
growth are being increasingly realized."
The eight countries with the most impressive GDP growth
rates in 1995 were Burkina Faso (6 per cent), Cote d'Ivoire
(6.6 per cent), Ghana (6.9 per cent), Kenya (6.1 per cent),
Malawi (6.2 per cent), Mali (6 per cent), Togo (6.7 per cent)
and Tunisia (6.7 per cent), the report said. The recovery in
GDP growth was related mainly to a strong performance by the
manufacturing sector and a modest rebound by the mining
sector, the report said.
The manufacturing sector recorded a positive growth rate of
4.2 per cent in value added in 1995, mainly because of the
availability of better input supplies and improvements in the
importation of raw materials for agro-allied industries.
Capacity utilization, encouraged by remedial policy measures
such as the rationalization of industries under structural
adjustment programmes, was a main contributor to the positive
growth, the report said.
Extensive reforms in the mining sector over recent years
have lead to increased exploration and mining investment in
several countries, the report noted. But the overall
improvements in the mining sector were related to an almost 20
per cent increase in mineral and metal ore prices and a 7.9
per cent increase in the oil sector. Copper prices were 27.3
per cent higher in 1995 than in 1994, while prices of other
minerals and metal ores also increased: of nickel (30 per
cent), aluminum (22.3 per cent), cobalt (19.9 per cent), lead
(14.6 per cent) and iron ore (6 per cent).
Growth in the agricultural sector -- the traditional
mainstay of most African economies -- was lacklustre.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the
incidence of drought in the third quarter of 1994 and the
first quarter of 1995 precipitated famine conditions that
affected some 10 countries in the northern, eastern and
southern subregions.
Overall, agricultural output in the region stagnated. There
was a drastic reduction in per capita agricultural output in
some subregions, with the growth rate decreasing from 4.2 per
cent in 1994 to 1.5 per cent in 1995. The loss was more
pronounced in the northern, southern and eastern subregions
than elsewhere. The southern sub-region registered a negative
7 per cent growth rate for 1995, while the eastern subregion
recorded a negative 3 per cent. West Africa performed better,
but its agricultural growth rate still fell from 5.8 per cent
in 1994 to 4.2 per cent in 1995.
Africa's external trade benefitted from price increases for
primary commodities, which according to ECA provisional
estimates boosted export earnings by 11.1 per cent in
1995 compared to a 4.9 per cent increase in 1994.
For further information, please contact: Africa
Recovery, Room S-931, United Nations Headquarters, New York
(tel. 212-963-6857) or Information Service, ECA, Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia (tel. 251-1-510-172).
Note: The previous year's report, for 1995, is available on-
line at
http://www.sas.unpenn.edu/African_Studies/ECA/AfEcMenu.html
This year's full report is not yet available on-line.
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This material is being reposted for wider distribution by the
Africa Policy Information Center (APIC). APIC's primary
objective is to widen the policy debate in the United States
around African issues and the U.S. role in Africa, by
concentrating on providing accessible policy-relevant
information and analysis usable by a wide range of groups and
individuals. APIC is affiliated with the Washington Office on
Africa (WOA), a not-for-profit church, trade union and civil
rights group supported organization that works with Congress
on Africa-related legislation.
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