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Africa: FAO Food Supply Report
Africa: FAO Food Supply Report
Date distributed (ymd): 970827
Document reposted by APIC
This posting contains excerpts from a longer report, including individual
data on 48 sub-Saharan African countries. It is available on the Web at
http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/FAOINFO/ECONOMIC/GIEWS/ENGLISH/EAF/eaf9708/httoc.htm
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)/
Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS)
Africa Report, August 1997
HIGHLIGHTS
The food situation in Sierra Leone is deteriorating rapidly. The recent
political upheaval and resulting widespread civil unrest have aggravated
the already precarious food security situation in the country. There is
a real possibility of famine. Insecurity is widespread, international aid
workers have been evacuated and the rehabilitation projects started during
the short-lived civilian administration have been put on hold. A large
number of refugees have crossed into neighbouring countries, while repatriation
of those outside the country prior to the upheaval has come to a halt.
Food supplies in the main towns have dwindled and prices have skyrocketed.
Planting and weeding of the main crops which normally take place from April
to June have been seriously disrupted, while distribution of inputs has
become exceedingly difficult. Thus, contrary to earlier hopes and optimism
for recovery, prospects for food production in 1997 are very bleak and
the country will continue to need large amounts of food aid to meet its
consumption requirements.
Serious food supply difficulties persist in the Great Lakes region.
In Burundi, a recent (June) FAO/WFP Mission estimated total food production
in 1997 at one percent above 1996 and 4 percent below the 1988-93 pre-crisis
average. Despite a relaxation of the embargo, food prices remain very high,
ranging from one-third to 275 percent higher than a year ago. In neighbouring
Rwanda, a similar Mission at the same time found that total food production
in 1997 will be well below the pre-crisis level, despite the need to feed
1.6 million more people than a year ago. In the Democratic Republic of
Congo (DRC), the food and security situation of the remaining Rwandan refugees
scattered in many places remains critical, with a high incidence of severe
malnutrition.
Food supplies still tight in eastern Africa. The impact of the recent
drought continues to be felt in this sub-region, but harvest prospects
for the current season crops are generally favourable. In Kenya, the food
supply situation remains tight with prices at high levels. In Uganda, prices
of maize and beans have more than doubled over the past year. The situation
is particularly difficult in the eastern part hit hardest by the drought
and the northern part affected by civil strife. In Somalia, the recent
drought worsened an already bad situation caused by previous poor harvests,
input shortages and continuing civil strife. In Tanzania, the food situation
in the drought-hit north and north-east is still difficult and prospects
for the next harvest, about to start, appear to be yet unfavourable. In
the southern unimodal rainfall areas of the country, cereal harvesting
is nearing completion and production is projected at 18 percent below last
year. An aggregate cereal import requirement of some 1 million tons for
the whole country during the 1997/98 marketing year is provisionally forecast.
Elsewhere in eastern Africa the main planting season has just began and
the food supply situation is generally satisfactory, except in localized
pockets.
Early growing conditions are favourable in western Africa. The rainy
season is now well established in western Africa, planting is completed
or in progress and crop growing conditions are normal so far. Following
generally good harvests in 1996 the food supply situation is expected to
remain satisfactory until the next harvest in November/December.
Southern Africa's food supply situation remains stable. Harvesting of
the main cereal crops is almost complete in most countries of the region.
Total output is expected to be average, estimated at 17 million tons, but
12 percent below last year's bumper crop. With large opening stocks from
the last harvest in several countries, the overall food supply situation
is expected to be generally stable over the 1997/98 marketing year.
Sub-Saharan Africa's cereal import requirements in 1997 are expected
to be lower than last year by some 21 percent, reflecting the generally
satisfactory 1996 harvests in western Africa and parts of the Horn, and
a relatively good harvest, now nearing completion, in southern Africa.
However, the sub-region's food aid needs, though some 15 percent lower
than last year, remain high, estimated at 2 million tons. Food aid pledges
currently fully match the requirement but speedier deliveries are needed.
SERIOUS FOOD SUPPLY DIFFICULTIES PERSIST IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION
Despite a marked improvement in the security situation in the Great
Lakes region, serious food supply difficulties persist, largely due to
massive population movements in the recent past and continuing displacements.
In Rwanda, 1.6 million more people will need to be fed in the second
half of 1997 than during the same period a year ago - an increase of 25
percent. Yet, overall food production in 1997 is estimated at 18 percent
below the 1990 level. Access to food has become exceedingly difficult for
those relying on market purchases as prices have soared. Thus, substantial
food assistance continues to be required. However, this assistance will
need to be carefully targeted to avoid an oversupply which could discourage
food production later.
In Burundi, aggregate food production in 1997 is estimated to be 4 percent
lower than the pre-crisis average, despite an improved input supply situation
and somewhat better security recently. A significant proportion of the
population in the conflict areas have not been able to cultivate their
land in past seasons and are therefore highly food insecure, with high
rates of severe malnutrition reported among them. Substantial emergency
food assistance therefore continues to be needed.
The food situation remains critical in the eastern part of the Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC). Severe malnutrition is reported among the remaining
Rwandan refugees and the security situation is still tense. Humanitarian
sources estimate the number of remaining refugees whose location is known
at around 24 000, in addition to about 190 000 internally displaced persons
(IDPs). ...
FOOD SITUATION REMAINS TIGHT IN EASTERN AFRICA
The impact of the drought that affected most of eastern Africa during
the last (short rains) season is still being felt in all the affected countries.
In Kenya, the overall food supply situation remains tight with sharply
increased food prices. Food aid distribution continues in pastoral and
agriculturally marginal areas which were the most affected by the drought.
However, prospects for the 1997 main "long rains" cereal crop,
to be harvested from October in the main growing areas, are favourable
due to generally adequate rainfall, despite the late start of the season
and dry weather in May. ... Overall, early indications point to a maize
output above last year's below-normal crop, but lower than the bumper crop
of 1994.
In Uganda, following the below-average 1997 first season harvests in
several areas of the country, the food supply situation has tightened.
Prices of beans and maize have more than doubled their level of a year
ago. The situation is particularly difficult in the eastern and north-eastern
districts, which were affected by drought and floods and in the northern
districts where insecurity is hampering food production as well as food
aid distribution. The latest assessment estimates the number of persons
affected by drought/floods in need of food assistance at 612 000. In addition,
food aid is needed for about 150 000 internally displaced persons in the
north and 268 945 refugees.
Prospects for the 1997 second season food crops are generally favourable
following good rains in April and May. However in eastern and southern
parts, where planting was delayed by one month due to the late start of
the rains, and where precipitation was below average in May, significant
yield reductions are anticipated. In the northern districts affected by
continuous civil strife, production is anticipated to be reduced for the
second consecutive season, reflecting reductions in the area planted due
to population movements.
In Ethiopia, the food situation has been generally satisfactory in most
areas, mainly due to the record main harvest at the end of last year. However,
there are several areas, particularly in the pastoral south and south-east,
where the food supply situation became critical, following the drought-reduced
short season crops and deterioration of pasture and livestock conditions.
In some of these areas, crops from the short rains season account for a
high proportion of household annual food production. The deterioration
of the food supply situation has been particularly serious in several areas
of the Somali Region and the southern part of Oromia Region bordering Somalia
and Kenya.
In Eritrea, where the 1996 cereal harvest was poor, the food supply
situation remains fragile, although food prices are stable reflecting the
inflow of supplies across the border from Ethiopia. Food aid continues
to be needed, however, and the requirement for the current marketing year
is estimated at 289 000 tons.
In Somalia, the food situation has deteriorated rapidly following the
drought, coupled with the continuing civil strife. The main "Gu"
crop harvested last September was also poor, and thus the aggregate 1996/97
cereal production is estimated at about one-half of the pre-civil crisis
level. The difficult food supply situation is reflected in very high grain
prices and increased selling of livestock. However, prospects for the 1997
Gu crop are favourable, reflecting good rains since late March, although
plantings and crop yields were constrained by seed shortages, high input
prices and continuing civil strife.
In Sudan, the overall food supply situation is generally satisfactory,
reflecting the good cereal harvest last December, and the above-average
wheat crop harvested recently. However, localized food shortages are being
experienced in many areas, notably in Darfur and Kordofan, the Red Sea
State and the south, with an aggregate food deficit estimated at around
600 000 tons. Although some of the deficit is expected to be met through
normal internal trade, a large number of people will be unable to acquire
adequate supplies to meet their consumption needs because of limited purchasing
power. Emergency food assistance to cover the needs of vulnerable groups
in 1997 is estimated at 74 000 tons of cereals, including 39 000 tons for
an estimated 2.6 million displaced and war-affected people under Operation
Lifeline Sudan (OLS).
In Tanzania, the food supply situation is still tight in the drought-affected
bimodal rainfall areas of the north and north-east and the coast. These
same areas appear to be headed for yet another poor harvest during the
current season due to erratic rainfall. Harvesting of the main season crop
in the unimodal rainfall areas in the centre and south is in progress,
but production is forecast to be below normal due to irregular rains in
parts. Overall, the 1996/97 cereal production is forecast to decline by
some 18 percent over past year. At this forecast level, a deficit of some
1 million tons is anticipated during the 1997/98 marketing year.
EARLY GROWING CONDITIONS FAVOURABLE IN WESTERN AFRICA
The rainy season is now well established in western Africa. So far,
rains have been generally regular and widespread over most producing areas
of the Sahel, except in the west. They started in late March/early April
in Burkina Faso, becoming abundant and widespread in late May and early
June. In Chad, Mali and Niger, the rainy season started in April in the
southern parts, progressing northwards into the sahelian zone in May and
June. The first significant rains reached the eastern part of Guinea-Bissau
and south-eastern Senegal in early May and eastern Gambia in late May,
becoming widespread thereafter, and reaching southern Mauritania in early
June. In early July, widespread rains have been received in the main producing
areas of Mali and Niger, although they were less than in late June. Also,
rainfall in early July was quite abundant over Chad and south-western Mali,
but much less in central and northern Senegal and northern Burkina Faso.
In mid-July, precipitation was abundant over Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad,
but decreased significantly in the western part of the Sahel, notably in
Senegal and the Gambia.
A STABLE FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA, DESPITE REDUCED
OUTTURN
Harvesting of the 1997 coarse grain crop is almost complete in most
areas of southern Africa. Aggregate output is about average, estimated
at 17 million tons, but 12 percent below last year's bumper crop. Rainfall
in 1997 has been irregular, adversely affecting yields. Moreover, unusually
cold weather in June delayed harvesting in some areas.
Cereal production in Angola is estimated to be 14 percent lower than
in 1996, due to below normal rainfall. In contrast, harvest is expected
to be above average in Mozambique and Namibia, due to favourable weather,
increased plantings and higher yields. In Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, South
Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe, output is anticipated to be lower
than last year's bumper harvest as irregular rainfall reduced yields. The
maize crop in South Africa is expected to be about 8.5 million tons, well
below the 10 million tons in 1996. In Madagascar, the 1997 paddy crop is
forecast to be slightly above last year's level, but an outbreaks of locusts
in southern parts may adversely affect output in those areas. Prospects
for the sub-region's 1997 wheat crop are favourable, as abundant water
is available in dams following a good rainy season.
Reflecting the 1997 average harvest, the sub-region's overall food supply
situation during the 1997/98 marketing year is expected to be generally
stable but much less favourable than in the previous year. However, the
availability of large opening stocks in several countries will reduce the
need for large imports of cereals. Commercial imports are expected to meet
a large part of the food needs but in several countries, particularly Angola,
Lesotho, Madagascar and Mozambique, food assistance, including emergency
food aid, will be required for vulnerable people.
This material is being reposted for wider distribution by the Africa
Policy Information Center (APIC), the educational affiliate of the Washington
Office on Africa. APIC's primary objective is to widen the policy debate
in the United States around African issues and the U.S. role in Africa,
by concentrating on providing accessible policy-relevant information and
analysis usable by a wide range of groups and individuals.
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